TED英语演讲 | 为什么我们需要想象不一样的未来

万水整理 TED与纪录片 2019-07-04

🕖 简介

Why we need to imagine different futures

演讲者Anab Jain | 亚娜·柏珍

语言:英语

简介:亚娜·柏珍让未来活了过来。她创造体验,让人们能够触摸、看见,以及感受到我们可能会造成的世界。比如,我们想要一个智慧机器巡逻街巷的世界吗?或是一个由基因遗传决定我们健康照护的世界?珍的专案呈现为我们想要的世界而战何以重要。来这场让人大开眼戒的演说,瞄一眼未来可能是什么样子。


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I visit the future for a living. Not just one future, but many possible futures, bringing back evidences from those futures for you to experience today. Like an archaeologist of the future. 

我靠访问未来为生,不只是一个未来,而是许多可能存在的未来,为了让今天的你来体验这些来自未来的生活。就像未来的考古学家一样。


Over the years, my many journeys have brought back things like a new species of synthetically engineered bees; a book named, "Pets as Protein;" a machine that makes you rich by trading your genetic data; a lamp powered by sugar; a computer for growing food.

多年来,我从我的旅程中带回了许多东西,比如一种经过人工合成的蜜蜂新品种;一本名为《如同蛋白质的宠物》的书;一种通过交换基因数据使你变得富有的机器;一盏由糖供能的灯;一台能生长粮食的电脑。


OK, so I don't actually travel to different futures -- yet. But my husband Jon and I spend a lot of time thinking and creating visions of different futures in our studio. We are constantly looking out for weak signals, those murmurs of future potential. Then we trace those threads of potential out into the future, asking: What might it feel like to live in this future? What might we see, hear and even breathe? 

好吧,我其实还没有去过不同的未来。但我的丈夫乔恩与我花了很多时间思考,并在我们的工作室里创造来自不同未来的景象,我们一直在寻找微弱的信号,那些由未来可能性发出的杂音。接着我们从这些潜在的线索追踪到未来,然后发问:在这样的未来生活会是种什么感觉?我们能看到什么,听到什么,甚至呼吸着什么?


Then we run experiments, build prototypes, make objects, bringing aspects of these futures to life, making them concrete and tangible so you can really feel the impact of those future possibilities here and now. But this work is not about predictions. It's about creating tools -- tools that can help connect our present and our future selves so we become active participants in creating a future we want -- a future that works for all.

然后我们进行实验,建立原型,制造物体,将这些未来的景象带入生活,使他们变得具体而有形,从而能让你在此时此地真切感受到潜在未来所带来的影响。但这项工作并不是为了预测,而是为了创造一些工具——一些能帮助我们连接现在与未来的工具,让我们成为积极的参与者,创造一个我们想要的未来——一个适合所有人的未来。


So how do we go about doing this? For a recent project called Drone Aviary, we were interested in exploring what it would mean to live with drones in our cities. Drones that have the power to see things we can't, to go places we can't and to do so with increasing autonomy. But to understand the technology, getting our hands dirty was crucial. 

那么我们该怎么做?最近有一个名叫鸟笼无人机(DroneAviary)的项目,我们非常有兴趣去探究在我们的城市中与无人机生活意味着什么?无人机能看到我们不能看到的事情,去我们不能去的地方,并且随着自控能力的增强而主动这么做。但想要了解这种技术,亲力亲为是至关重要的。


So we built several different drones in our studio. We gave them names, functions and then flew them -- but not without difficulty. Things came loose, GPS signals glitched and drones crashed. But it was through such experimentation that we could construct a very concrete and very experiential slice of one possible future.

于是我们在工作室里制作了不同的无人机。我们给了它们起了名字,定义了功能,然后让它们起飞——但这并不简单。零件开始松动,GPS信号发生故障,接着一些无人机坠毁了。但正是通过这样的实验,我们才可以构建一个非常具体,非常有经验性的潜在未来的一个片段。


So now, let's go to that future. Let's imagine we are living in a city with drones like this one. We call it The Nightwatchman. It patrols the streets, often spotted in the evenings and at night. Initially, many of us were annoyed by its low, dull hum. But then, like everything else, we got used to it. 

那么,让我们来看看这个未来,让我们想象一下我们生活在一个拥有这样的无人机的城市。我们把它叫做“守夜人”(TheNightwatchman),它在街上巡逻,经常在傍晚与午夜出没。最初,许多人都为它产生的低沉、沉闷的嗡嗡声所困扰。但随后,就像其他东西一样,我们渐渐习惯了。


Now, what if you could see the world through its eyes? See how it constantly logs every resident of our neighborhood; logging the kids who play football in the no-ballgame area and marking them as statutory nuisances.

如果你能透过它的眼睛看到这个世界呢?看看它是如何不断地记录我们周围的每一个居民区;记录着在无球区打橄榄球的孩子们,并将他们标记为法定的“妨害”。


And then see how it disperses this other group, who are teenagers, with the threat of an autonomously issued injunction. And then there's this giant floating disc called Madison. Its glaring presence is so overpowering, I can't help but stare at it. But if feels like each time I look at it, it knows a little more about me -- like it keeps flashing all these Brianair adverts at me, as if it knows about the holiday I'm planning. I'm not sure if I find this mildly entertaining or just entirely invasive.

然后看看它是如何自主地下达威胁禁令,驱散这个青少年群体。还有一个叫做麦迪逊(Madison)的巨大漂浮圆盘,它耀眼的存在是如此的强烈,我忍不住盯着它看。但是每次我看着它的时候,就感觉它更加了解我了——就像它不停地对我闪烁着这些飞行(Brianair)广告,就好像它知道我正在计划着假期。我不确定这是否算是适度地带有娱乐性的行为,或只是具有侵略性的行为。


Back to the present. In creating this future, we learned a lot. Not just about how these machines work, but what it would feel like to live alongside them. Whilst drones like Madison and Nightwatchman, in these particular forms, are not real yet, most elements of a drone future are in fact very real today. 

回到现在,在创造这个未来的时候,,我们学到了很多,不只是这些机器如何运作,而且与他们一起生活是一种怎么样的感觉。同时像是麦迪逊(Madison)或者守夜人(Nightwatchman),还未以这种形式存在的时候,大多无人机的构成原理在现今都十分真实。


For instance, facial recognition systems are everywhere -- in our phones, even in our thermostats and in cameras around our cities -- keeping a record of everything we do, whether it's an  advertisement we glanced at or a protest we attended. These things are here, and we often don't understand how they work, and what their consequences could be. And we see this all around us. This difficulty in even imagining how the consequences of our actions today will affect our future.

比如,无处不在的面部识别系统——在我们的手机,甚至调温器里,还存在于城市里随处可见的摄像头里——都记录下了我们所做的每一件事,无论是我们随处一瞥的广告还是参加的抗议活动。它们无处不在,而且我们时常不清楚他们是如何工作的,以及它们所带来的后果。它们无处不在。很难想象我们今天行动的后果将如何影响我们的未来。


Last year, where I live, in the UK, therew as a referendum where the people could vote for the UK to leave the EU or stay in the EU, popularly known as "Brexit." And soon after the results came out, a word began to surface called "Bregret" --

去年,我住在英国的时候,那里举行了一次全民公投,那里的人们可以投票支持英国脱离欧盟,或者留在欧盟,俗称“英国脱欧”(Brexit)。结果出来后不久,一个单词开始出现,叫做“英悔退欧”(Bregret)——


describing people who chose to vote for Brexit as a protest, but without thinking through its potential consequences. And this disconnect is evident in some of the simplest things. Say you go out for a quick drink. Then you decide you wouldn't mind a few more. You know you'll wake up in the morning feeling awful, but you justify it by saying, "The other me in the future will deal with that." But as we find out in the morning, that future "you" is you.

形容那些用抗议来选择投票脱欧,但却不考虑它的潜在后果的人。这种疏离在一些最简单的事情上是显而易见的。比如你出去喝了一杯,然后你决定再多喝几杯也无所谓,你明白早上醒来会觉得很糟糕,但你却为自己解释,“未来的另一个我会处理好的。”但是正如我们早上所发现的,那个未来的“你”还是你。


When I was growing up in India in the late'70s and early '80s, there was a feeling that the future both needed to and could actually be planned. I remember my parents had to plan for some of the simplest things. When they wanted a telephone in our house, they needed to order it and then wait -- wait for nearly five years before it got installed in our house.

当我于70年代末,80年代初在印度长大,那时觉得未来需要并且实际上可以被计划。我还记得我的父母不得不为一些最简单的事情做计划,当他们想要在家里装电话时,他们需要订购,然后等待——等了将近五年才把它装好。


And then if they wanted to call my grandparents who lived in another city, they needed to book something called a "trunk call," and then wait again, for hours or even days. And then abruptly, the phone would ring at two in the morning, and all of us would jump out of our beds and gather round the phone, shrieking into it, discussing general well-being at two in the morning.

然后如果他们想给住在另一个城市的祖父母打电话,他们需要预订一种叫“长途电话”的东西,然后再等上几个小时甚至几天。接着突然,电话会在凌晨2点响起,而我们所有人都会从床上跳起来,围着电话转,在凌晨两点的时候对着话筒大叫,讨论一切如何安好。


Today it can feel like things are happening too fast -- so fast, that it can become really difficult for us to form an understanding of our place in history. It creates an overwhelming sense of uncertainty and anxiety, and so, we let the future just happen to us. We don't connect with that future "us." 

现今时常感觉事情发展得太快了——以至于我们很难对自己的历史地位产生深刻的理解。它产生了一种压倒性的不确定性与焦虑感,所以,我们选择坐等着未来的到来。我们不会把未来的“我们”联系在一起。


We treat our future selves as a stranger, and the future as a foreign land. It's not a foreign land; it's unfolding right in front of us, continually being shaped by our actions today. We are that future, and so I believe fighting for a future we want is more urgent and necessary than ever before.

我们把未来的自己当作陌生人对待,而且把未来当作一片外国的土地。但它并不是外国的土地;它就在我们的眼前发展着,不断被我们今天的行动所塑造。我们即是未来,所以我相信争取我们所期望的未来,是一件比以往任何时候都更加紧迫与必要的事情。


We have learned in our work that one of the most powerful means of effecting change is when people can directly, tangibly and emotionally experience some of the future consequences of their actions today. Earlier this year, the government of the United Arab Emirates invited us to help them shape their country's energy strategy all the way up to 2050.Based on the government's econometric data, we created this large city model, and visualized many possible futures on it. 

我们在工作中学到了最有效的改变手段之一就是当人们可以直接地,真切地与有感情地去体验他们今日的行动所带来的一些后果的时候。今年早些时候,阿联酋政府邀请我们去帮助他们塑造国家的能源战略直到2050年。根据政府的计量经济数据,我们建立了这个大城市的模型,并设想了许多可能存在的未来。


As I was excitably taking a group of government officials and members of energy companies through one sustainable future on our model, one of the participants told me, "I cannot imagine that in the future people will stop driving cars and start using public transport." And then he said, "There's no way I can tell my own son to stop driving his car."

正当我兴奋地带着一群政府官员与能源公司的成员,通过一个在我们的模型中可持续的未来的时候,其中一个参与者告诉我,"我无法想象未来人们会停止驾驶汽车,并开始使用公共交通工具。”然后他说,“我不可能告诉我的儿子让他不要开车。


But we were prepared for this reaction. Working with scientists in a chemistry lab in my home city in India, we had created approximate samples of what the air would be like in 2030 if our behavior stays the same. And so, I walked the group over to this object that emits vapor from those air samples. 

但我们已经准备好了应对这种反应,我曾在我的家乡印度的一个化学实验室里与科学家们一起工作,我们已经创造了接近似的空气样本,如果我们的行为保持不变,那么2030年的空气将会是什么样的,接着,我带着这个小组到这个从这些空气样本中释放出水汽的装置前。


Just one whiff of the noxious polluted air from 2030 brought home the point that no amount of data can. This is not the future you would want your children to inherit. The next day, the government made a big an nouncement. They would be investing billions of dollars inrenew ables. We don't know what part our future experiences played in this decision, but we know that they've changed their energy policy to mitigate such a scenario.

只吸入了一点点来自2030年的恶性污染的空气,就清楚地展现了无法用数据表达的重点。这不是你希望你的孩子们继承的未来。次日,政府宣布了一项重大声明,他们将在可再生能源上投资数十亿美元,我们不知道是哪些未来的体验在这个决定中会发挥了作用,但是我们知道他们为了缓和这种情况已经改变了能源政策。


While something like air from the future is very effective and tangible, the trajectory from our present to a future consequence is not always so linear. Even when a technology is developed with utopian ideals, the moment it leaves the laboratory and enters the world, it is subject to forces outside of the creators' control. 

虽然像未来的空气这样的指标是非常有效和切实的,但从现在到未来的发展轨迹并非是一直是线性的,即使一种技术是朝着乌托邦式的理想来发展,但在它离开实验室的那一刻并进入世界时,便会受到创作者之外的力量所控制。


For one particular project, we investigated medical genomics: the technology of gathering and using people's genetic data to create personalized medicine. We were asking: What are some of the unintended consequences of linking our genetics to health care? To explore this question further, we created a fictional lawsuit, and brought it to life through 31 pieces of carefully crafted evidence. So we built an illegal genetic clinic, a DIY carbon dioxide incubator, and even bought frozen mice one Bay.

对于一个特定的项目,我们调查了医疗基因组学:是一种收集与使用人类基因数据的技术用来创造个人化医疗。我们发问:将我们的基因与医疗保健联系起来会产生什么样的意想不到的后果?再进一步探索这个问题,我们创造了一个虚构的诉讼案件,并通过31件细心制作的证据实现了它。所以我们建立了一个非法的基因诊所,一个手工制作的二氧化碳培养箱,接着甚至在eBay上买了一只冻老鼠。


So now let's go to that future where this lawsuit is unfolding, and meet the defendant, Arnold Mann. Arnold is being prosecuted by this global giant biotech company called Dynamic Genetics, because they have evidence that Arnold has illegally inserted the company's patented genetic material into his body. 

现在我们来看看这个诉讼正在发生的未来,让我们来认识一下被告,阿诺德·曼。阿诺德正被这家叫做“动态遗传”的大型跨国生物科技公司起诉。因为他们有证据证明阿诺德把公司的专利基因材料非法植入了他的身体。


How on earth did Arnold manage to do that? Well, it all started when Arnold was asked to submit a saliva sample in this spit kit to the NHI -- the UK's National Health Insurance service. When Arnold received his health insurance bill, he was shocked and scared to see that his premiums had gone through the roof, beyond anything he or his family could ever afford.

阿诺德到底是怎么做到的?其实,这一切都是在阿诺德被要求在这个唾液工具箱中提交唾液样本到NHI的时候开始的——即国民健康保险。当阿诺德收到他的健康保险账单时,他感到震惊和害怕看到他的天价保险费,已经远远超出了他与他的家庭能够支付得起的限度。


The state's algorithm had scanned his genetic data and found the risk of a chronic health condition lurking in his DNA. And so Arnold had to start paying toward the potential costs of that future disease -- potential future disease from today. In that moment of fear and panic, Arnold slipped through the city into the dark shadows of this illegal clinic for treatment -- a treatment that would modify his DNA so that the state's algorithm would no longer see him as a risk, and his insurance premiums would become affordable again. But Arnold was caught. And the legal proceedings in the case Dynamic Genetics v. Mann began.

国家的演算系统扫描了他的基因数据,并发现了在他的DNA中有潜伏慢性健康疾病的风险。所以阿诺德不得不从今开始向未来的疾病支付潜在的预算——向这种未来可能存在的疾病。在充满恐惧和恐慌的那一刻,阿诺德从城里溜了出来融入了这个非法诊所的黑暗阴影里——为了找到可以改变他DNA的治疗,这样一来,国家的演算系统,就不再认为他是一个风险,而且他也能负担得起他的保险费了。但是阿诺德被抓住了。接着他与动态遗传公司的诉讼开始了。


In bringing such a future to life, what was important to us was that people could actually touch, see and feel it spotential, because such an immediate and close encounter provokes people to ask the right questions, questions like: What are the implications of living in a world where I'm judged on my genetics? 

当把这样的未来带入到生活中时,对我们来说,人们可以触摸到,看到与感觉到这种可能性是很重要的。因为这种密切相关的接触会驱使人们去问正确的问题,就像:生活在一个从基因来判断自我的世界意味着什么?


Or: Who might claim ownership to my genetic data, and what might they do with it? If this feels even slightly out-there or farfetched, today there's a little-known bill being passed through the American congress known as HR 1313, Preserving Employee Wellness Programs Act. 

或是谁拥有我的基因数据的所有权,并且他们会用它做什么?如果这个感觉有点遥远,或者是牵强,实际上就在今天,美国国会通过了一项鲜为人知的法案,通称HR1313,员工健康保留计划法案。


This bill proposes to amend the Genetic Information Nondiscrimination Act, popularly known as GINA, and would allow employers to ask about family medical history and genetic data to all employees for the first time. Those who refuse would face large penalties.

该法案提议修改基因信息非歧视法案,俗称GINA,它并且首次允许雇主询问所有员工的家庭病史与遗传数据。那些拒绝的人将面临巨大的惩罚,


In the work I've shown so far, whether it was drones or genetic crimes, these stories describe troubling futures with the intention of helping us avoid those futures. But what about what we can't avoid? Today, especially with climate change, it looks like we are heading for trouble. And so what we want to do now is to prepare for that future by developing tools and attitudes that can help us find hope -- hope that can inspire action.

在我所展示的作品中,不管是无人机还是基因犯罪,这些故事都描述了令人不安的未来,而目的是帮助我们避免这些未来。但那些我们不能避免的呢?现今,尤其是气候变化问题,看来我们要有麻烦了。所以我们现在要做的就是为未来做准备,通过开发工具与转变态度来帮助我们找到希望——可以激起行动的希望。 


Currently, we are running an experiment in our studio. It's a work in progress. Based on climate data projections, we are exploring a future where the Western world has moved from abundance to scarcity. We imagine living in a future city with repeated flooding, periods with almost no food in supermarkets, economic instabilities, broken supply chains. What can we do to not just survive, but prosper in such a world? What food can we eat?

目前,我们的工作室开展了一项实验,这是一项正在进行中的工作。基于气候数据预测,我们正在探索那个西方世界已经从富足到匮乏的未来。我们想象着生活在一个不断遭遇洪水的未来城市里,超市里经常缺少食物,经济不稳定,商品供应链已经崩溃。我们需要做的不仅仅是生存,而是在这样的一个世界里繁荣。我们能吃什么食物?


To really step inside these questions, we are building this room in a flat in London from 2050. It's like a little time capsule that we reclaimed from the future. We stripped it down to the bare minimum. Everything we lovingly put in our homes, like flat-panel TVs, internet-connected fridges and artisanal furnishings all had to go. 

要真正介入这些问题中,我们在伦敦的一间公寓里建造了这个从2050年的房间,这就像一个我们从未来中回收的小型时间胶囊。我们把它的容量尽可能缩小,为了打造一个温馨的家而布置的一切,像平板电视,智能冰箱,和手工家具都要搬走。


And in its place, we're building food computers from abandoned, salvaged and repurposed materials, turning today's waste into tomorrow's dinner. For instance, we've just finished building our first fully automated fogponics machine. It uses the technique of fogponics -- so just fog as a nutrient, not even water or soil --to grow things quickly. At the moment, we have successfully grown tomatoes. But we'll need more food than what we can grow in this small room. So what else could we forage from the city? Insects? Pigeons? Foxes?

在它的空间里,我们正在从废弃的、回收的和改造的材料中建造食物电脑,把今天的废品变成明天的晚餐。比如,我们刚刚完成了我们的第一个全自动的雾化机。它使用了雾化的技术——只用雾作为一种养分,甚至不用水或土壤——来培育粮食。目前,我们已经成功的种植了西红柿。但是我们需要的食物比我们在这个小房间里能生长的还要多,那么我们还能从城市中寻找什么呢?昆虫?鸽子?狐狸?


Earlier, we brought back air from the future. This time we are bringing an entire room from the future, a room full of hope, tools and tactics to create positive action in hostile conditions. Spending time in this room, a room that could be our own future home, makes the consequences of climate change and food insecurity much more immediate and tangible.

早些时候,我们从未来带回了空气。这次我们将从未来带来一个完整的房间,一个充满希望、工具和战术的房间,用来在恶性的环境中创造出正确的行动。在这样的房间里呆上一会儿,一个可以成为我们未来家园的房间,能使气候变化和食物缺乏的后果更加直接和切实。


What we're learning through such experiments and our practice and the people we engage with is that creating concrete experiences can bridge the disconnect between today and tomorrow. By putting ourselves into different possible futures, by becoming open and willing to embrace the uncertainty and discomfort that such an act can bring, we have the opportunity to imagine new possibilities. 

我们通过这些实验和实践,以及与我们接触的人们学到的是,创造具体的体验可以跨越今天和明天的鸿沟。通过把自己放到未来不同的可能性中,通过转变为坦率和乐意去接受这种行为所带来的不确定性和不适,我们就有机会去想象新的可能性。


We can find optimistic futures; we can find paths forward; we can move beyond hope into action. It means we have the chance to change direction, a chance to have our voices heard, a chance to write ourselves into a future we want. Other worlds are possible.

我们可以找到乐观的未来;我们可以找到前进的路;我们可以把希望变成行动。这意味着我们有改变未来的机会,一个让我们的声音被听到机会,一个把自己写进我们想要的未来的机会。另外的世界是充满可能的。


Thank you.(Applause)

谢谢。(掌声)



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