G20让世界进入了一个危险的新阶段

路闻卓立编译 人民币交易与研究 2019-07-08

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来自欧洲、日本和加拿大的三位教授联合撰文指出,尽管中美两国最近达成了停战协议,但世界已进入一个危险的新阶段,即大国竞争。在这种情况下,欧洲和环太平洋国家等较小的国家将没有机会享受公平和开放的贸易,除非它们结成统一战线。

图片 | 视觉中国

由于日本首相安倍晋三的努力,最近在大阪举行的G20峰会避免了可能出现的最坏结果。在美国总统唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)的时代,这算得上是一场胜利。此外,20国集团领导人发表了一份最终公报,重申自由开放贸易的重要性。在峰会期间,美国和中国达成了一项贸易战休战协议,而欧盟宣布与越南和南方共同市场国家集团(阿根廷、巴西、巴拉圭和乌拉圭)签署新的自由贸易协定。

Thanks to the efforts of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, the recent G20 summit in Osaka avoided the worst possible outcomes. That counts as a victory in the age of US President Donald Trump. Among other things, G20 leaders issued a final communiqué affirming the importance of free and open trade. And on the sidelines of the summit, the United States and China agreed on a trade-war armistice, while the European Union announced the signing of new free-trade agreements with Vietnam and the Mercosur bloc (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay).

尽管如此,全球经济不确定性的根本原因依然存在。在中美冲突得到解决之前,商业和贸易流动将面临政治动荡的风险。为了避免在新的大国竞争中成为附带损害,日本、欧盟、加拿大、澳大利亚、马来西亚以及其他许多国家正在联合起来保护自己的利益和国际贸易体系。各方都承认,全球贸易中最重要的问题是监管,关注的不是关税,而是投资保护、对国有企业的补贴、知识产权和环境保护、公开招标、电子商务和数据流。

Nonetheless, the underlying sources of global economic uncertainty remain. Until the Sino-American conflict is resolved, commercial and trade flows will be at risk of political disruption. In order to avoid becoming collateral damage in the new great-power struggle, Japan, the EU, Canada, Australia, Malaysia, and many others are coming together to protect their interests and the international trade system. Each has acknowledged that the most important issues in global trade are regulatory, concerning not tariffs but investment protections, subsidies to state-owned enterprises (SOEs), intellectual-property (IP) and environmental protection, open public tendering, e-commerce, and data flows.

最近的一项研究发现,《全面与进步跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》(CPTPP)和《欧盟与加拿大综合性经济贸易协定》(CETA)中的国家在大多数主要监管问题上已经趋同。但作为主要依赖积极外交和软实力的国家,它们将在旷日持久、不断升级的地缘政治冲突中失去一切,在此过程中,它们将面临选择立场的压力。为了维护它们的利益,它们必须确保全球贸易受制于客观的争端解决机制。

A recent study finds that countries in the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and the EU-Canada Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) have already converged on most of the major regulatory issues. But as countries that largely rely on active diplomacy and soft power, they have everything to lose from a prolonged and escalating geopolitical conflict in which they would come under pressure to choose sides. To defend their interests, they must ensure that global trade is subject to objective dispute-settlement mechanisms.

对多边主义的承诺不是对现状的认可。CPTPP和CETA成员国认识到,全球贸易体系存在一些问题,包括不完整或过时的规则,未能考虑到对国有企业的补贴等问题。但他们也知道,双边主义——小国试图与超级大国在平等条件下谈判——根本没有这个选项。因此,解决办法是通过在欧盟和CPTPP成员国之间建立新的伙伴关系,恢复多边贸易体系的平衡和信任。

A commitment to multilateralism is not an endorsement of the status quo. CPTPP and CETA member states recognize that the global trading system has problems, including incomplete or outdated rules that fail to account for issues such as subsidies to SOEs. But they also know that bilateralism – small countries trying to negotiate on equal terms with superpowers – is not an option. The answer, then, is to restore balance and trust to the multilateral trading system, by forging a new partnership between the EU and the CPTPP countries.

欧盟和CPTPP成员国之间的欧太伙伴关系将占全球国民生产总值(GNP)的31%,占所有贸易的40%,这将使其为全球贸易确立共同原则和标准方面发挥重要作用。考虑到欧盟目前与包括越南在内的几乎所有CPTPP成员国都签署了贸易协定,这一目标很容易实现。此外,建立新的伙伴关系并不需要新的贸易协定,而仅仅是对现有协定的整合。

A Euro-Pacific Partnership between the EU and CPTPP would represent 31% of world GNP and 40% of all trade, giving it substantial leverage to establish common principles and standards for global trade. This objective is well within reach, given that the EU now has trade agreements with almost every country in the CPTPP, including Vietnam. Moreover, a new partnership would not require a new trade agreement, but merely a consolidation of existing agreements.

建立欧洲与太平洋伙伴关系的原因既有政治方面的,也有经济方面的。那些仍然致力于多边主义的国家需要发出一个强有力的信息,即它们将捍卫其他国家已经抛弃或宣布过时的自由价值观和制度。

The reasons for forming a Euro-Pacific Partnership are as much political as economic. Those countries that remain committed to multilateralism need to send a strong message that they will defend the liberal values and institutions that other countries have abandoned or declared obsolete.

因此,尽管可以与欧盟和CPTPP成员国建立新的伙伴关系,但它必须对所有国家开放,前提是他们接受某些规则和原则。反过来,如果中美再次发生冲突,作为成员国将成为一种保险。我们现在知道,一场贸易和技术战争可能对全球经济产生深远的影响。那些坚称保护主义在全球价值链世界中是不可能(存在)的人是错误的。

Hence, while a new partnership could start with the EU and CPTPP, it must remain open to all countries, provided they accept certain rules and principles. Membership, in turn, would serve as an insurance policy in the event of a renewed Sino-American conflict. We now know that a trade and technology war can have far-reaching consequences for the global economy. Those who insisted that protectionism was impossible in a world of global value chains were wrong.

我们提议的伙伴关系将基于以下12项原则:

1. 承认世界贸易组织为全球贸易体系的中心论坛和解决争端的主要平台。
2. 明确、深化和现代化政府补贴优先领域的规则,国有企业的作用,以及实施知识产权保护。
3. 本着大阪精神,制定与电子商务和数据传输有关的新规则,在G20峰会上由24个签署国通过,以制定数字治理框架。
4. 保证外国投资和市场准入是安全的,即使各国保留决定其公共政策的自由。
5. 公共采购的透明度和互惠性。
6. 遵守2015年巴黎气候协定。
7. 尊重基本权利和自由,包括结盟自由。
8. 按照世贸组织的原则,建立一个现代化的联合争端解决机制的可能。
9. 欧盟和CPTPP成员国之间的监管一致性。
10. 建立欧盟和CPTPP成员国之间定期高级别政治协商机制。
11. 在所有部门建立工作组,在这些部门中,共同或协调的立场可能促进成员经济的共同利益。
12. 建设和平繁荣地区的意愿,不受地缘政治竞争的影响。

Our proposed partnership would be based on the following 12 principles:

1.    Recognition of the World Trade Organization as the central forum of the global trading system and the main platform for settling disputes.
2.  The clarification, deepening, and modernization of rules in the priority areas of government subsidies, the role of SOEs, and enforcement of IP protections.
3.    The development of new rules related to e-commerce and data transfer in the spirit of the Osaka Track, adopted by 24 signatories at the G20 summit to formulate a digital governance framework.
4.   The guarantee that foreign investment and market access are safe, even as states retain the freedom to determine their own public policies.
5.    Transparency and reciprocity in access to public procurement.
6.    Compliance with the 2015 Paris climate agreement.
7.    Respect for fundamental rights and freedoms, including freedom of association.
8.    The possible establishment of a modernized joint dispute-settlement mechanism, in line with WTO principles.
9.    Regulatory consistency between the EU and the CPTPP countries.
10.  The establishment of a mechanism for regular high-level political consultations among EU and CPTPP countries.
11.  The creation of working groups in all sectors where common or harmonized positions may advance member economies’ joint interests.
12.  The will to build an area of peace and prosperity, free from geopolitical competition. 

仅凭这些原则无法拯救多边主义。但仍致力于这一理想的国家必须开辟一条新的前进道路。下个月在法国举行的G7峰会之后,人们希望欧盟、日本和加拿大能够在2020年底前能达成一致并确定一种新的伙伴关系的精确模式。现在是多边主义者为捍卫自己的原则而集体采取行动的时候了。

These principles alone will not save multilateralism. But countries still committed to that ideal must forge a new path forward. Following the G7 summit in France next month, the hope is that the EU, Japan, and Canada will endorse and define the precise modalities of a new partnership by the end of 2020. It is time for multilateralists to put their collective foot down in defense of their principles.

作者:Zaki Laïdi,Shumpei Takemori和Yves Tiberghien

Zaki Laïdi是巴黎政治学院国际关系教授。
Zaki Laïdi is Professor of International Relations at Sciences Po.

Shumpei Takemori是东京庆应义塾大学的经济学教授。
Shumpei Takemori is Professor of Economics at Keio University in Tokyo.

Yves Tiberghien是温哥华英属哥伦比亚大学的政治学教授。
Yves Tiberghien is Professor of Political Science at the University of British Columbia in Vancouver.(完)

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